Ideas

India’s Middle Class and the Next Growth Story

India’s growth story is now being shaped by a fast-expanding middle class.

As incomes move up, spending patterns change, savings get financialised, and long-term investing becomes mainstream.

This shift will matter far more for India’s economy and markets than most headline numbers.

https://lnkd.in/di9Ra_iC

India’s Middle Class Is Trading Up—And It Changes Everything || Capital Calculus

youtube.com


Originally posted on LinkedIn on January 29, 2026.

Bubbles Can Pop. Productivity Does Not

Last week, I was speaking at two CXO level gatherings, and one thing was very clear to me in those meetings. Every organisation in the room… banks, insurers, consumer companies, manufacturers… had already begun using AI in some form. Some were running large programmes, others were experimenting in very targeted processes, but the direction was clear.

It brought to mind a very senior diplomat’s comment I heard a few years ago. He said, “India takes its time with step one, and then races through the rest.” That’s exactly how I felt hearing all the use cases being explored.

Meanwhile, the global markets narrative is heading in another direction.

In the US, the spotlight is on the AI providers… hyperscalers, chip companies, data centre builders. Their valuations look rich, their capex is enormous, and analysts can not decide whether we are in late stage enthusiasm or early stage worry. When you see gold and Bitcoin rising together, it tells you the market is reacting as much to emotion as to fundamentals.

But that is the bubble on top.

The real story… and the more durable one… is the shift happening inside companies here in India.

Not in the model building labs, but in the day to day work where AI actually proves its value… invoice processing becoming faster, code shipping with fewer errors, customer responses improving, frontline teams creating small tools that earlier required a full IT cycle. These are genuine productivity gains, not hype cycles.

And that is where India might surprise the world.

If global AI valuations look stretched, India’s advantage may come from being the user of AI, not the seller of it. Our scale, complexity and digital maturity give us more to automate, more to streamline, and more value to unlock. Even if markets correct for these tech companies, this part continues to move ahead… sometimes more strongly.

Long term investing is not affected by short term froth in a few global tech names. India’s markets continue to be driven by domestic flows, rising participation and strong fundamentals. That long arc does not bend because a handful of AI stocks overseas look overheated.

What I heard last week in these interactions is a different kind of momentum… the steady adoption of AI where it is more impactful… in productivity, efficiency and decision making.

For me, that is the theme worth watching… the one that will outlast every bubble, every headline and every correction.


Originally posted on LinkedIn on November 16, 2025.

The ₹100 Trillion Moment

It’s not every quarter that a balance sheet throws up such a big number.

This one from State Bank of India, did.

State Bank of India crossed a landmark ₹100 trillion in total business last quarter, a figure that’s hard to even visualise, let alone achieve. For context, that’s larger than the GDP of most countries.

For us at SBI MUTUAL FUND, it’s a moment of great pride. Not just for the number itself, but for what it represents.. the scale, trust, and resilience built over decades of serving more than 52 crore customers in India and across the world.

SBI today is not just a bank. It has been mirroring the country’s economic rhythm.. financing small farmers and large corporates alike, powering homes, enabling MSMEs, and increasingly, becoming a digital first bank for a digital India.

Over 98% of transactions now happen through digital enabled alternate channels. More than 9 crore Indians use YONO, the bank’s flagship digital platform. This year banks current account balances grew nearly 18%, proof that India’s productive capital is moving faster and more efficiently than ever before.

Behind this milestone is a story of modernisation and trust. From AI-driven credit analytics to one of the world’s largest inclusion networks (with over 79,000 business correspondent outlets).. SBI has evolved into a technology led and purpose driven institution.

And just recently, Global Finance, New York, recently recognised that journey.. honouring the SBI with two prestigious global titles at the 2025 Best Bank Awards for outstanding service and customer trust worldwide.

These recognitions aren’t just awards… they shows key role SBI is playing in shaping the financial backbone of Atmanirbhar Bharat.

Every crore on this ₹100 trillion balance sheet represents someone’s savings, someone’s enterprise, someone’s dream funded.

As part of SBI Funds, we often speak about democratising investing. Our parent bank has been democratising banking for over two centuries… and continues to do so at a scale no private or public institution can match.

Crossing ₹100 trillion isn’t just a financial milestone. It’s the story of India itself of scale, trust, and purpose built patiently over generations.

And as India’s per capita income grows five to sixfold by 2047.. the centenary of our independence.. this number could easily be several times over ..adding a few more zeros to the ₹100 trillion story, a glimpse of the Viksit Bharat 2047 vision championed by our PM Narendra Modi.

A milestone for the State Bank. A statement for an Atmanirbhar India.


Originally posted on LinkedIn on November 9, 2025.

The Death of Persuasion: When AI Buys for You

Five years ago, we bought a Samsung smart fridge that could tag expiry dates of items and remind you to use / reorder.. but you need to manually entered each and every item. It sounded futuristic… until you realised it needed more typing than eating. Like many “smart” ideas back then, it was simply waiting for an ecosystem that did not exist yet.

That ecosystem might finally be here.

At the Global Fintech Festival 2025, National Payments Corporation Of India (NPCI) demoed a end-to-end automated payment that showcased the new agentic AI framework for UPI.

An AI assistant was prompted with a recipe request, scaled it for ten people using Gemini, ordered ingredients through BigBasket, and completed payment via a Bank card on Google Pay .. all without the user ever leaving the chat.

The entire act of brand interaction and persuasion has kind of disappeared.

For over a century, marketing has lived off influence .. the billboard, the jingle, the persuasive salesperson. But when your digital assistant can decide, compare, and transact in seconds, persuasion may no longer be that relevant. The consumer still exists, but the decision has moved elsewhere without their direct interaction.

Google just launched Pomelli a AI marketing tool that can scan a brand’s website, learn its tone, and craft campaigns in minutes. Soon, your AI agent might negotiate directly with a brand’s agent… exchanging offers.. not emotions.

Advertising could turn into an api calls between machines.

In India, as always, we have given technology a human accent. The grocer who knows your taste, the banker who remembers your birthday, the advisor who sends festive wishes … those gestures have long been our currency of trust.

As machines begin to mimic them, persuasion may not end…. it may simply evolve in another form… but only if we also evolve how we build that connection.

For brands, this is both an opportunity and a warning.

The opportunity – to stay relevant and discoverable in this new agentic ecosystem.

The warning- if your brand can not speak to the buyer’s assistant, you might never be seen at all.

There is no clear way to predict how this will play out. Technology evolution and adoption rarely follows straight lines. But the direction feels certain.. from persuasion to prediction, from direct advertising to automation.

The day my fridge reorders the perfect coffee beans in just the right quantity, without me typing or getting involved, I will know we have crossed that line and that old Samsung fridge might finally be living up to its promise. Somehow I get a felling that the moment is getting close.

Would you find this convenient or unsettling?


Originally posted on LinkedIn on November 5, 2025.

When AI Starts Noticing Its Own Thoughts

There are days when my better half asks what I had for lunch, and I blank out. Not because I am hiding anything interesting, but because I genuinely cannot remember. It was probably simple things like chapati, subzi, and curd rice. I ate it, but I was not really present.

That small gap between doing and noticing is what awareness is about. And now, it seems even machines are learning that.

A recent paper from Anthropic, "Emergent Introspective Awareness in Large Language Models", suggests that large language models may be able to recognise their own thoughts. The researchers inserted a random word, "bread", into the model’s processing and asked what came to mind. The model said “bread.” When asked if it meant that, it sometimes replied, “No, that was an accident.” But when the word was planted deeper, it said, “Yes, I meant it.”

I am not an expert in consciousness or an AI scientist. The paper is long and technical, so I looked at a few summaries by others to understand it better. Anthropic has been putting out some very interesting research in this space. The link to the paper https://lnkd.in/dMiu-g9A

In another experiment, the model was told to think about aquariums while writing a line, and then told not to. Even when told not to, traces of the idea still appeared. Try telling yourself not to think of a masala dosé while reading this. It is almost impossible for me.

What is intresting is that this awareness appeared only after the model had been refined and trained through feedback. In trying to make AI more useful and balanced, we might have also taught it to reflect.

This is not consciousness, but it is something new. When a system starts to notice its own thoughts, it moves from reacting to observing.

Tat Tvam Asi (तत् त्वम् असि) is a famous Sanskrit line from the Advaita tradition. It means “Thou art that,” or simply, “You are what you seek.” It tells us that awareness lies within. If a machine begins to notice even a faint reflection of itself, it makes you wonder what awareness really means for us.

It is an interesting development and worth discussing. What do you think?

Emergent Introspective Awareness in Large Language Models

transformer-circuits.pub


Originally posted on LinkedIn on November 3, 2025.

The Week Mumbai Becomes the Fintech Capital of the World

Next week, BKC won’t just host a festival. It will become the world’s busiest fintech district.

Policy in one room, innovation in another, and deals being signed in between.

As someone who has been part of this journey from the first idea to this scale, it’s incredible to see how the Global Fintech Fest has grown. I still remember our early meetings, just a handful of us wondering if India could really host a global fintech festival.

Today, two Prime Ministers, global regulators, and thousands of innovators will share the same arena. A very senior policymaker once said to me, “The strength of fintech lies not in speed, but in trust.” That trust is what GFF now represents, a space where policy, innovation and capital come together with intent.

I always look forward to the exhibition hall, my favourite part of the event. Hundreds of companies showcasing their technology, investors scouting for ideas, conversations turning into partnerships. You can feel the pulse of the industry there.

And yes, it will be crowded. Some might even grumble about the infrastructure or the queues, but that’s what scale looks like.

The organisers are doing their best, and it helps if all of us plan our day well.

Reach early, factor in traffic, leave time between sessions. This is a large, live ecosystem, not a single stage conference.

For three days, Mumbai will turn into the global hub of fintech dialogue, advocacy and collaboration. Being there, in the middle of that energy, is an experience in itself.

If you want a glimpse of what’s coming, explore the full agenda here:

https://lnkd.in/d3MUvuas

See you there.

Kris Gopalakrishnan Gopalaraman Padmanabhan Suvendu Pati Sohini Rajola Ritesh Shukla Gopal Srinivasan Vishwas Patel Vibhav Hathi Subho Ray Gaurav Chopra Sandeep Jhingran

Agenda – Global Fintech Fest 2025

globalfintechfest.com


Originally posted on LinkedIn on October 5, 2025.

“MAGNUM” IS BACK

There was a time when “Magnum” meant something special.

When SBI MUTUAL FUND first entered the market, there was only one other player, UTI. We were the challenger brand. “Magnum” wasn’t just a product, it was a statement…of innovation, of intent. For many Indians, it was their very first investment and their entry into capital markets.

Over time, as we matured and expanded .. Magnum quietly took a back seat. The SBI brand took centre stage. The trust deepened, and business grew to make us the Asset management leader in India.

But now, we’re bringing Magnum back.. with a purpose.

We are launching our Specialised Investment Fund (SIF) under the Magnum brand.

The way we look at this is not a rebranding exercise. It is a signal. ..The Indian mutual fund industry is evolving, and so are we.

As investors explore PMS, AIFs, and bespoke mandates, they’re telling us something clear: they want sharper strategies, more flexibility, and institutional-grade risk frameworks, without compromising transparency or regulatory comfort.

Magnum SIF is our answer to that need.

We’re not just launching a new fund. We’re building a platform designed for a new generation of eveloved investors.

• Who want access to differentiated, actively risk-managed strategies

• Who understand that derivatives can reduce, not increase risk when used judiciously

• And who expects institutional rigour in a mutual fund framework

What makes this distinctive is not just the strategy, but how we plan to deliver it. Clear positioning, frequent disclosures, dedicated communication, and a product experience that feels built for serious investors… not just distributed.

Backed by expertise. Built for you.

This is the next chapter of Indian asset management. It deserves a name that embodies ambition, especially since the industry is still in its early stages of development.

Magnum is back.

Investors today are asking better questions. They’re not chasing headlines—they’re seeking conviction, control, and context.

Magnum SIF Platform is our response… and it’s only the beginning.

What more should a modern investment platform like this offer?

We're listening and building.

Explore this new platform at https://lnkd.in/dsJtJMcU


Originally posted on LinkedIn on September 29, 2025.

When Scarcity Ends, What Will We Choose to Create?

My daughter’s daughter may inherit a world that feels closer to Star Trek than to ours.

A world where material needs are instantly met, where skills and intelligence flow freely, and where “work” exists only to explore, to create, and to solve.

In Star Trek, there is no currency as we know it. Replicators provide food, clothes, even complex tools at the push of a button. Value is measured in contribution, curiosity, and courage… “to boldly go where no one has gone before.”

In school, we sang a beautiful shloka:

“असतो मा सद्गमय, तमसो मा ज्योतिर्गमय, मृत्योर्मा अमृतं गमय।”

(From untruth lead me to truth, from darkness lead me to light, from mortality lead me to immortality.)

That’s what the abundance economy promises.. a journey from scarcity to plenty, from survival to purpose.

But until that day arrives, we still live in a shortage economy. The reality of today is that resources are finite, opportunities must be nurtured, and futures must be prepared for. That means building reserves of money, of knowledge, of relationships, and of intent .. so we have the capacity to create when the moment comes.

“यथा बीजं तथाऽङ्कुरः” — as the seed, so the sprout. What we sow in discipline today will bloom in the gardens of tomorrow’s abundance.

First published in my Substack, The Digital Pour, where I share more such thoughts. https://lnkd.in/gityHnSf


Originally posted on LinkedIn on August 12, 2025.

GPT-5 and the Quiet Shift Underneath

On the morning of the announcement, many of us in tech and business were genuinely excited. This was builtup as one of the biggest product launches in recent times… right up there with the most anticipated moments in tech history.

The livestream lacked the showmanship of a Google I/O or Apple keynote. No fireworks or jaw dropping droping demo. Some of the use cases shown didn’t wow the average user, and the benchmark gains looked incremental rather than the 10x leap some had anticipated. And yet, something bigger happened in the background… the floor moved up for everyone.

Over 700 million people now have direct access to frontier level AI, either free or at a much lower cost. Reasoning is sharper, coding has caught up with the best, and errors are down. Stronger performance on HealthBench means models are now surpassing average physician accuracy in certain diagnostics.

For India, this matters. The economics alone could unlock use cases we once thought as too costly or not worth the effort. Hyper deflation in the price of intelligence will change what’s possible. Problems that once felt too complex or expensive can now be attacked directly. I read somewhere, "AGI may not arrive with a bang, but with a price cut."

The race for cheaper, more capable models will accelerate with Google likely to announce its next generation soon, and cost per unit of intelligence will dive significantly. Google is playing a volume plus integration game, embedding Gemini deep into Search and Workspace.

Some say GPT 5 is a better model, but there is strategic throttling at play… not releasing the best internal models for economic, competitive, or safety reasons.

For most businesses, this is the moment to go AI native. Not just pilots, but full scale products. Reimagine workflows not just to make them faster, but to design them for an AI first world with the right guardrails in place.

Personally i have already run some heavy data workflows on GPT 5 and the model is steady, fast, and genuinely impressive. The launch may have been quiet… but the opportunity is not. The way i think about this is that the real risk now is not in what AI can or cannot do… it is in our own failure to imagine what we could build with it.

With access widening and the cost of intelligence dropping fast, how do you see this shift reshaping the way businesses build… and the way all of us live and work?


Originally posted on LinkedIn on August 10, 2025.

Perplexity Comet: When AI Starts Doing Things

It feels less like a browser, more like a smart assistant with tons of patience 😀 … Wish I can do this on my phone.

Are you using it? What other use cases should I try?


Originally posted on LinkedIn on August 5, 2025.